The Final Olympic Qualifying Tournament opens on Friday in Taiwan. Eight teams will determine the last three remaining slots for the Olympics. They will play a single round robin over the course of eight days with the top three joining the USA, Cuba, the Netherlands, China and Japan in Beijing this August.
Australia, Canada, South Korea and Mexico should be considered as the favourites for this event. Chinese Taipei also has chances as they are playing in front of their home crowd. The European teams Germany and Spain in addition to the usual African representative South Africa are considered as heavy underdogs.
Australia
After surprisingly winning a silver medal in Athens 2004, Australia is now considered as one of the best nations in international baseball. However the Olympic qualifier is going to be a difficult tournament for them. They will miss their biggest stars, as Travis BLACKLEY, Justin HUBER and Brad HARMAN all attend Major League Spring Training camps. Their roster features 13 players, who are younger than 25 years old. Red Sox prospect Adam BLACKLEY is among them. Most of them played over the winter in Australian Baseball Leagues and the Claxton Shield. The National Team did two exhibition series against a regional selection and Team Canada. Although they struggled with a batting average of .183 and an ERA of 6.43 against the maple leafs, they got their work in.
Keys to success: Veterans like Glenn WILLIAMS, Luke HUGHES and Ben RISINGER have to produce early to take some pressure of the younger players.
Canada
Canada is bringing a roster to Taiwan, which should be stronger in comparison to the Baseball World Cup in November. Led by Adam STERN, who impressed at the World Baseball Classic 2006, the team is filled with Minor League players and former Major Leaguers like Stubby CLAPP or Steve GREEN. During their friendship series against the Aussies last week they already worked on all cylinders. After losing the first match, they won three out of four (one tie) afterwards, batting a combined .310. Their pitchers also showed promising signs with an ERA of 3.35. James AVERY and Jamie RICHMOND are a good one-two punch at the front of the rotation. Their durability is somewhat a concern as these games now are the first for them since last year.
Keys to success: Their bullpen needs to step up, as the starters can’t go deep into the games this early in the season.
Chinese Taipei
They can rely on something, which no other participant can. The host will have the crowd behind their backs. This is definitely an advantage because only games with Taiwan will be played with significant attendance. However their six-game series against Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) teams revealed some concerns. Their heart of the order with Tai-Shan CHANG and Chih-Sheng LIN struggled a bit and with them the whole offense. But they got better in the end and played nearly flawlessly in their last warmup against the Sinon Bulls (10-0). Jien-Fu YANG is expected to start on Friday against Spain. Keys to success: They need to lead off the tournament with victories to thrive with the home crowd.
Germany
They have the most difficult job to do of all eight teams. The German team received their invitation after the withdrawal of Great Britain as early as January, leaving just two months for preparation. Despite the fact that the players didn’t expected to play baseball in March they got a pretty good roster together. Only Rodney GESSMANN (Minnesota Twins organization) is missing, as his club didn’t allow his participation. Manuel MOELLER, who had missed the Baseball World Cup due to professional reasons, will replace him. They also only could work together a couple of days and played only a single test match against a Italian Baseball Academy selection. It should be even a miracle if they are winning at least one game.
Keys to success: The starters Enorbel MARQUEZ-RAMIREZ, Tim HENKENJOHANN and Manuel MOELLER have to be on top of their game to give Germany a small chance.
Mexico
Most of the players are coming fresh of a full winter league season in their home country. This is a big advantage, as most of their opponents didn’t play at all. The roster should be better than at the Baseball World Cup. Walter SILVA, Pablo ORTEGA, Roberto SAUCEDO and the former Major League catcher Miguel OJEDA and outfielder Karim GARCIA impressed in test games against Mexican Summer League teams. After this series they went to Tucson, Arizona and faced the reigning National League champion. After being crushed in the first match, they defeated the Colorado Rockies by a score of 2-1. Mexico is definitely one of the favourite teams at the Qualifier and as good as anyone.
Keys to success: They need to find their rhythm faster than in November as they are facing the favourites in the first four games.
South Africa
They are relying mostly on the same roster as in the Baseball World Cup. The team travelled earlier to Asia and met with Chinese squads to see some game action. They also squared of with Spain during workouts this week. Among Germany those three are considered as heavy underdogs. South Africa lost all seven games last November and was overmatched against nearly every opponent. They featured a .222 batting average and an ERA of 7.90. They are only getting a chance versus the Europeans.
Keys to success: Pitchers Carl MICHAELS and Robert VERSCHUREN have to bring their best performances to the mound.
South Korea
South Korean manager Kyung-Moon KIM selected several big name players for the tournament. They are missing only Chan Ho PARK, who is trying to restart his MLB career with the Dodgers, and Jae SEO, who is injured. Nevertheless they are having one of their best rosters on hand since a long time. The sluggers Seung-Yeop LEE, Dae-Ho LEE and Dong-Joo KIM are forming a formidable heart of the order. Former San Francisco Giant Sun-Woo KIM along with Hyun-Jin RYU and Min-Han SON leads the pitching staff. Like Chinese Taipei they have played a series of warm-ups against CPBL clubs, winning all three relatively easy. They have some concerns regarding their middle infield and the depth of their bullpen as key players like shortstop Jin-Man PARK and closer Seung-Hwan SO are injured.
Keys to success: The defense has to make all the plays, as the pitching staff features no strikeout artists.
Spain
Spain received a berth at the Qualifier due to an impressive performance at the European Championships last September, finishing in third place in front of a enthusiastic home crowd. The roster consists mostly of players, who played for the squad at the Baseball World Cup. They held a productive training camp in South California and played a series of test matches against College teams of this area. Their pitchers Manuel OLIVERA, Yoel HERNANDEZ, and Audi NUNEZ are already in good shape. Closer Fernando GUTIEREZ along with Jorge BALBOA and Remigio LEAL struggled a little bit, giving away leads at the end of games. They also have some concerns about protection for their best hitter Dewis NAVARRO in the batting order.
Keys to success: The offense needs to show some power to support the pitching staff.
Prediction:
South Korea
Canada
Mexico
Australia
Chinese Taipei
Spain
South Africa
Germany
The final result of the tournament:
Canada
South Korea
Taiwan
Mexico
Australia
Germany
Spain
South Africa
Your prediction has some problems, and maybe you may write some comments for it.
Yes you are right. But predictions are always difficult. We underestimated the home field advantage for Taiwan. And their pitching staff did a good job. They really got the extra push to finish in front of Australia and Mexico. The latter didn’t play well in the beginning but had one of the best rosters (on paper) for the FOQT. So you could expect a better performance. Well, and Germany surprised everyone. You could not expect two victories with the short preparation time. But the talent is definitely there.