Quick, look at the Baseball World Cup standings and take a second to fully grasp the situation.
Now, click over to the team stats page, and inform yourself why each team is where they are.
It should be no surprise to see the Netherlands at the top of their group, with Canada and Panama, once you look over their stats from the first three games. They out-hit, out hustled, and outpitched their opponent in game one, Taiwan. In game two, they rolled over a hapless Greek team; piling up 19 runs in just five innings. Not yet content, on Wednesday they made history with their first win over Japan in the BWC ever.
How does a small European country defeat two of the top baseball countries in the world? Balance. Contribution. Clutch.
Four players have two or more RBIs with two outs. Each starter pitched their team to a lead through four innings, winning their team the momentum. The most telling stat of the team: a total of zero errors. In order to hang with the top competition, you have to score runs. In order to beat them, you keep them off the board with clean defense. Netherlands has put themselves in the thick of things by playing beautiful baseball.
For an example of what near-solid play gets you, we have a prime example in Germany. With a little more luck in their arms, Germany could have been even with Italy at 2-1. In game one, opponent Nicaragua chalked up four runs on three throwing errors and a wild pitch, using that early lead to withstand a Germany rally. In game two against Korea, an error at third let Korea rally to take the lead, and while the Germans forced extra innings, they couldn’t outscore their opponent in the extra frame. They also were unlucky when they had runners in scoring position and less than two outs on three occasions, close to breaking the game open but getting stymied. The team can clearly play with countries ahead of them in the rankings, despite the outcome of the Dominican Republic game.
Italy, meanwhile, has cruised past Australia and Nicaragua after a loss to the Dominicans. Even that loss doesn’t truly show how well Italy competed. A grand slam with two outs in the seventh inning helped the DR put what was a 3-0 deficit out of reach for the Italians. The second half of the schedule won’t be kind to the Italians, as they take on the better half of the group, plus a game against fellow Europeans Germany.
Team Greece has been unable to keep things close in their first three games, and the next four games will be just as, if not more, difficult against the US, Puerto Rico, Taiwan, and Japan. Its easy to find fault in the pitching and a large number of free passes, but errors in the long innings during game one set a bad tone for the next couple days. Here’s to hoping they can flip the script.
From here, it’s likely to see Netherlands and Italy advance. Four wins has been the magic number to advance as the fourth seed in the past, so Italy would need to split their remaining games. Despite the hard lineup of opponents, they can pull it out with a bit more offensive production, seeing as they aren’t even in the top ten of the tournament up to now, lagging behind Venezuela and Nicaragua. The pitching, however, has been stellar, putting up numbers which make them fifth best so far, including a 2.08 ERA.
The Dutch have yet to face three of the top five offenses in the tournament, putting all the more importance on their pitching success. Sing the praises of a 1.17 ERA, but it will need to stay closer to three than to eight, which is what those opponents are scoring every game.