by Thommy Brolin
The final rounds of the Swedish Elitserien promises to be the most exciting ever in Sweden.
With four rounds to go (plus a couple re-scheduled games) there are in effect five teams that compete for three playoff spots (assuming that league leaders Karlskoga have their place secured.
The standings as of today:
Karlskoga 17 - 6 Rättvik 16 - 8 Stockholm 14 - 8 Sundbyberg 13 - 10 - - - - - - - - - - - - Leksand 13 - 11 Tranås 13 - 11 Gefle 4 - 20 Alby 3 - 19
Best ranked to get one of the remaining places is Rättvik, with 16 wins so far. But the remaining four games are against rivals Tranås and Sundbyberg, and if Rättvik looses both games to each team, it is very likely that both Tranås and Sundbyberg pass Rättvik in the standings.
The last four weeks have been disastrous for Stockholm, who is 1-6 in their last seven games, with two losses to Tranås and four straight losses to Leksand. The only positive for Stockholm is that they are leading Sundbyberg 5 - 2 after six innings in a suspended game that will be completed on August 20.
Sundbyberg have been playing very well after a very rough start to the season, despite having to shuffle the line-up around due to injuries and unavailable players. Sundbyberg is 8-3 over their last eleven games and this stretch included away series to both Leksand and Tranås.
Leksand looked to be out of the race after going 1-3 with Sundbyberg and 0–2 with Tranås, but has bounced right back after impressing everyone with four straight victories against Stockholm.
Tranås had the opportunity this last weekend to put themselves in a very comfortable situation with two home games against an injury-plagued Sundbyberg, but Sundbyberg showed great character and won the first game 5-4. Also the second game of the series was very close, and this time Tranås came out on top 11-9 after being behind late in the game.
Karlskoga has to play one series away to Leksand and one series at home to Stockholm, plus a rained-out game against Alby. A win against Alby and splits with Leksand and Stockholm will give Karlskoga a league best 20-8 record.
My prediction is that Rättvik wins at least one game in each of the remaining series against Tranås and Sundbyberg, and will then end up 18-10.
Stockholm looks set to win the suspended game against Sundbyberg, and should beat Alby in one game and Gefle in two games. If they then be able to split the last series with Karlskoga they should finish with a 19-9 record.
Sundbyberg should be able to beat Alby in two games, and as said above split the series with Rättvik. Presuming they will not be able to turn the suspended game against Stockholm around, they would then end up 16-12.
Tranås plays the same teams as Sundbyberg in the last four rounds, and I think they will beat Alby in two games and split the two games with Rättvik, leaving them with a 16-12 record.
Leksand plays Gefle away in two games, and although Gefle has played very well lately (beating Rättvik and pushing Karlskoga to the line), I think Leksand can win both those games. Leksand’s remaining series is against Karlskoga, and a split in that series will give Leksand a 16-12 record.
That would give us final standings like this:
Karlskoga 20 - 8 Stockholm 19 - 9 Rättvik 18 - 10 Sundbyberg 16 - 12 - - - - - - - - - - - - Leksand 16 - 12 Tranås 16 - 12 Gefle 4 - 24 Alby 3 - 25
This means that three teams will end up with a 16-12 record, but as Sundbyberg has 3-1 records against both Leksand and Tranås, they will then clinch the fourth playoff spot.
Rättvik and Stockholm run the risk of missing out, if they lose their remaining series.
If Sundbyberg wins both series against Alby and Rättvik their spot in the playoffs is secure. If not, then both Leksand and Tranås can overtake them by winning their remaining two series. Should both Leksand and Tranås win their series, and Sundbyberg not, then Tranås will get to the playoff as they have a 3-1 record against Leksand.
So, we are in for a conclusion of the league never before seen in Sweden!
